“But consider the evidence of trends and momentum, and bubbles and crashes. Market participants observe the impact of short-term fund flows and are ambivalent \u2014 at best \u2014 about the idea of markets being efficient. They know that a high proportion of stock market trades bear no relation to fundamental value and that few professional portfolios are actually invested exclusively for long-term cash flows.”<\/em><\/p>\n “We sold our stakes in 3M and Colgate Palmolive during the year and began buying Brown-Forman, the distiller of Jack Daniel\u2019s Tennessee Whiskey, and Clorox, the US household products and personal care products company. With 3M we were acting on growing doubts about the current management\u2019s capital allocation decisions, and in the case of Colgate Palmolive we grew tired of waiting for an effective growth strategy to emerge.”<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cSo I\u2019m writing this book about cycles and I\u2019m pouring everything I know from 50 years in to this book on cycles and about two thirds of the way in I said to myself \u2018hold it, why do we have cycles?\u2019\u2026I think the answer is that we have a trend line and we are progressing on the trend line and then people get optimistic and they depart from the trend line on the upside, I would call that \u2018an excess\u2019, and when the excess becomes sufficient it either collapses of its own weight or something else brings it down and it becomes a correction.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n “The top 20 best-performing hedge fund managers of all time made $59.3bn for their investors last year…as hedge funds took advantage of a strong tailwind in stock and bond markets.\u00a0These managers, led by Christopher Hohn\u2019s TCI and Steve Mandel\u2019s Lone Pine, made about one-third of the $178bn of total gains bagged by the hedge fund industry in 2019.”<\/em><\/p>\n “..you make the best decision you can based on what you know, but the success of your decision will be heavily influenced by (a) relevant information you may lack and (b) luck or randomness. Because of these two factors, well-thought-out decisions may fail, and poor decisions may succeed. While it might seem counterintuitive, the best decision-maker isn\u2019t necessarily the person with the most successes, but rather the one with the best process and judgment. The two can be far from the same, and especially over a small number of trials, it can be impossible to know who\u2019s who.”<\/em><\/p>\n “Since the establishment of the first U.S. ETF in 1993, the financial instrument has gained broad traction \u2014 and today, the ETF universe has an astonishing $5.75 trillion in assets under management (AUM), covering almost every niche imaginable…As you can see, equities are by far the largest galaxy in the ETF universe, making up 76.4% of all assets.”<\/em><\/p>\n “<\/span>Peter Lynch was generous with his time and insight when Barron\u2019s sat down with him at Fidelity\u2019s Boston headquarters. He was not, however, generous with his stock picks. Instead, he shared his views on various sectors and his thought process around choosing stocks today.”<\/em><\/p>\n “We are not making any judgment here of Amazon\u2019s valuation, nor of the sustainable Free Cash Flow which should be used to value the business. But we hope that we have highlighted that the cash flow is a complicated statement and that the use of free cash flow multiples is more complex than it looks. We recommend that Amazon should change its practice and consider using two measures of free cash flow, sustainable and total. This would be more meaningful to investors.”<\/p>\n “Investment banks\u2019 cuts to their research departments have begun to weigh on their coverage of even Europe\u2019s largest companies, as regulatory and commercial pressures force them to retrench from unprofitable business lines.”<\/em><\/p>\n “Eleven years ago, Institutional Investor proclaimed \u201cThe Death of Value Investing. It\u00a0was November 2008. II columnist Edward Chancellor believed the ongoing credit crisis had revealed \u201ca profound weakness\u201d in the investment discipline popularized by Benjamin Graham, the economics professor widely known as the father of value investing.”<\/em><\/p>\n “Klarman noted in the Jan. 15 letter that he is worried about a possible ‘liquidity trap’ as low rates don\u2019t seem to jolt economic growth, especially in Europe. That\u2019s where ‘interest rates go to die,’ he wrote.”<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WELCOME TO THE 44th EDITION OF VALUE INVESTOR DIGEST In this issue we feature an FT article on the efficient markets hypothesis turning 50, Fundsmiths\u00a0annual letter, a video from VINY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=703"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":704,"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/703\/revisions\/704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valueinvest.com\/hongkong\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Fundsmith Annual\u00a0Letter to Shareholders<\/a><\/h3>\n
Howard Marks\u00a0“Mastering the Market Cycle”\u00a0Video from Value Invest New York<\/a><\/h3>\n
Top Hedge Funds Post Biggest Gains in at Least a Decade<\/a><\/h3>\n
Howard Marks Memo: You Bet<\/a><\/h3>\n
Visualising the Expanse of the ETF Universe<\/a><\/h3>\n
Peter Lynch Draws on 50 Years of Stock-Picking to Find Growth Opportunities in Today\u2019s Market<\/a><\/h3>\n
Amazon’s Free Cash Flow<\/a><\/h3>\n
Sell Side Analysts are Becoming an Endangered Species<\/a><\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/gallery.mailchimp.com\/027a17ca80d041a7e68d6b6b7\/images\/a4d5d5cb-8db0-456f-bcce-aa5d2434fedc.jpg\")
<\/p>\nWhy Value Investing Sucks<\/a><\/h3>\n
Seth Klarman: The \u2018Rocket Fuel\u2019 Feeding this Rally Will Soon \u2018Run Out\u2019<\/a><\/h3>\n